KANO,
Nigeria — The most sharply contested election in Nigeria’s post-independence history wound down
to a tense conclusion on Saturday amid fears that a polarized electorate would
clash regardless of the outcome in a country split on religious, ethnic and
sectional lines.
There
appeared to be little middle ground between partisans of the incumbent
president, Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian from the south
hated in the north for mismanaging a bloody Islamist insurgency at steep cost,
and his challenger, Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler, a northerner and
a belated democratic convert whose Muslim faith and authoritarian past are
feared in the south.
Voters on
Saturday morning crowded around registration stations here in the north’s
largest city, a packed metropolis of more than five million, as hitches in the
process added to the tension. Election officials were more than two hours late
in some places, and malfunctioning electronic registration machines — a new
system designed to limit endemic fraud — stymied voters in others.
In the
crowds partisan anger seethed in Kano, hard-hit by Boko Haram bombings and
suicide attacks, with hints that — as in previous Nigeria elections — the
contest may not end when results are announced early next week. Nearly 1,000
people were killed after the 2011 vote, dozens of them here in Kano, in an
election nonetheless judged to have been one of Nigeria’s most peaceful.
This year
the stakes are far higher as the governing party’s hold on power is threatened
for the first time since the end of military rule in 1999. Analysts reckoned
that the contest was too close to call, though the momentum may have shifted
slightly to Mr. Jonathan after his military chiefs forced a six-week delay in
the voting, which was originally scheduled for February. Mr. Buhari’s
supporters, on the other hand, have spoken of declaring a parallel government
if they judge the vote to have been rigged, or of taking their grievances to
the streets.
“I’m
apprehensive,” said Clement Nwankwo, who heads a leading political study group
in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja. “I’ve just seen so much desperation on all sides.
People have dug in, and I don’t see that anybody is willing to compromise.”
In Kano’s
dirt-street, trash-encrusted Fagge district, many in the packed crowd warned
against a declaration of victory by the incumbent, Mr. Jonathan.
“We will not
accept it,” said Mannir Bala, 32, a trader. “We are only interested in Buhari.”
Others shouted their agreement. “We won’t allow Jonathan this time,” Mr. Bala
said. Others chimed in with complaints that echoed official statistics showing
an increase in poverty in Nigeria in recent years: their district had no electricity,
one man shouted; no water, another said; no education, said a third.
Other
would-be voters here brandished their new plastic identification cards and
spoke of wanting change after years of Islamist violence, corruption scandals
and stagnant living standards. “There is hardship in this country. No good
security,” said Dayyabu Yahaya Inuwa, a civil servant, waiting to register in
the shadow of the ocher-colored walls of the emir of Kano’s palace in this
centuries-old center of Islamic culture. The crowd had been waiting over two
hours to register but still no election officials had appeared. “By the grace
of Allah we will change the government,” Mr. Inuwa said.
In the
background to this year’s vote has hovered Boko Haram, whose violent insurgency
is now stretching into its sixth year. The tide appears to have turned in the
fight against the Islamists in the immediate period before the election —
particularly during the six-week delay demanded by the country’s military
chiefs — after years of halfhearted engagement by the Nigerian military. South
African mercenaries hired by the government have made a substantial difference,
officials in the north, diplomats and analysts said, along with a regional
military push by Chad, Cameroon and Niger and the Nigerians themselves — though
the other countries complain there is little to no coordination with the
Nigerians.
The
country’s airwaves and newspapers have been filled with advertising by the
government trumpeting the success of its belated campaign against Boko Haram,
and nearly every day the military announces a new success, after years of
defeats. Friday — on the eve of the election — Nigerian army officials said
they had overrun the Boko Haram stronghold of Gwoza.
Analysts said
there was little doubt that the six-week delay had benefited the governing
party, the People’s Democratic Party. “The P.D.P. has got a swagger that they
did not have before,” said Darren Kew, a Nigeria expert at the University of
Massachusetts Boston, who is observing the election here.
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